Presumably this market has to change once we get to a run-off situation? I wonder whether it is worth trading on Le Pen based on the assumption that he might sneak into contention like last time – not to win the election but based on the possibility of him again being one of two candidates in a run-off.

Hey Felix – shares cost more at all?

Definitely sticking with Segolene here, Tan; even if I didn’t actually want her to win, the shares seem to be the biggest chance of a winner, especially as it goes through to the second round. I just hope we’re not left cussing when France’s closet right pulls Le Pen through; through surely Sarkozy is a nasty enough individual for them to push him. In fact, how often do you see a splintering of the vote on the right?
F

Tan – Le Pen is way to high here – if he gets to the second round, the moderates will all rally around whichever the center candidate is. We should have a market on who gets to the second round, but this is not it.

I agree Tony and have now invested accordingly – I would suggest others do the same, with the standard disclaimer that I am now paritipating in this market.

i am quite mystified by the continuing Sego lead over Sarko in this market, when opinion polls have Sarko out ahead. Are we a bunch of wishful thinkers?

This is what Le Pen said about his chances:

“But unlike in 2002, this time I can win the election, because I will probably be facing a candidate of the left – which will at least offer voters the choice between two radically different alternatives.”

(reported by bbc)

With the emergence of Bayrou, the race and this market are bound to get even more interesting.