The political situation in Lebanon escalated in the beginning of May, following a period of institutional deadlock centring around the inability of the different factions to elect a new president, after Emile Lahoud left his office in November 2007. The conflict centres around the status of Hezbollah, the political group that was allowed to keep its weapons to fight against the Israeli occupation of Southern Lebanon after the civil war ended in 1989. This right for Hezbollah to keep its weapons became contested after Israel left Lebanon in 2000. The escalation in May started when the government fired the head of airport security, who is close to Hezbollah, and started to take measures against Hezbollah’s communication network. Hezbollah reacted by occupying the airport and West-Beirut. The army declared its neutrality to prevent the outbreak of a new civil war.

This direct challenge to the sovereignty of the government could result in a succesfull coup d’etat by a Hezbollah-led coalition when:
· The current government is forced to resign
· Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah gets the assignment from the army to form a new government

Sources: Al Jazeera English, International Crisis Group, Halliday (2005): The Middle East in International Relations