How will US-Iranian relations develop in the remaining of 2008?
Question will be judged on: 12/31/08 @ 02:32 AM PST
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TIP:
Current value = probability prediction will occur, e.g. $10 = 10% chance prediction will occur.
| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| No changes to status quo | $55.09 | (closed) |
| Further UN sanctions | $34.35 | (closed) |
| A EU-brokered package deal | $31.70 | (closed) |
| Official negotiations on relations | $30.00 | (closed) |
| Suspension of uranium enrichment by Iran | $30.00 | (closed) |
| War | $29.99 | (closed) |
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trades: 216 •
markets run: 5 •
member since: 05/09/08
Paul Rogers argues a war is not unlikely
market information
US-Iranian relations are at a critical point in time. Even Joschka Fischer, former foreign minister of Germany, speculated on a military confrontation, while other sources predict a direct diplomatic engagement. A critical IAEA report increased the chances of new sanctions, while a new incentives package might provide an opening. Clearly a very volatile situation that can swing in different ways.
The different options are not mutually exclusive (allthough e.g. both an agreement and war seem highly unlikely)
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