Who will win the French Presidential elections?

Available to trade:

POSSIBLE ANSWERS	CHANCE	TODAY
Sarkozy more info	74.3%/ 100.0%	(closed)
Bayrou more info	35.0%/ 0.0%	(closed)
Segolene Royal more info	40.4%/ 0.0%	(closed)
Le Pen more info	16.1%/ 0.0%	(closed)
Field more info	26.5%/ 0.0%	(closed)

Question closing

December 01, 2007 @ 03:27am PST

	Background information
	Real-time results widget
	Send to a friend

TAGS

Elections France

discussion

You must be logged in to submit a comment.

Tan.Copsey • Thu Dec 21 2006 at 05:33am PST

Presumably this market has to change once we get to a run-off situation? I wonder whether it is worth trading on Le Pen based on the assumption that he might sneak into contention like last time – not to win the election but based on the possibility of him again being one of two candidates in a run-off.

Tan.Copsey • Thu Dec 21 2006 at 05:34am PST

Hey Felix – shares cost more at all?

felix_cohen_1 • Fri Dec 22 2006 at 03:32am PST

Definitely sticking with Segolene here, Tan; even if I didn’t actually want her to win, the shares seem to be the biggest chance of a winner, especially as it goes through to the second round. I just hope we’re not left cussing when France’s closet right pulls Le Pen through; through surely Sarkozy is a nasty enough individual for them to push him. In fact, how often do you see a splintering of the vote on the right?
F

tcp • Sat Dec 23 2006 at 03:48am PST

Tan – Le Pen is way to high here – if he gets to the second round, the moderates will all rally around whichever the center candidate is. We should have a market on who gets to the second round, but this is not it.

Tan.Copsey • Mon Jan 01 2007 at 01:24pm PST

I agree Tony and have now invested accordingly – I would suggest others do the same, with the standard disclaimer that I am now paritipating in this market.

deepjane • Sun Jan 07 2007 at 01:08pm PST

i am quite mystified by the continuing Sego lead over Sarko in this market, when opinion polls have Sarko out ahead. Are we a bunch of wishful thinkers?

tcp • Tue Jan 09 2007 at 12:26am PST

This is what Le Pen said about his chances:

“But unlike in 2002, this time I can win the election, because I will probably be facing a candidate of the left – which will at least offer voters the choice between two radically different alternatives.”

(reported by bbc)

Kanishk Tharoor • Tue Mar 13 2007 at 04:03am PDT

With the emergence of Bayrou, the race and this market are bound to get even more interesting.

price chart

- Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph

You need to upgrade your Flash Player to view the Inkling graphs.

Background information

Click to view original

The Issue

France’s president is one of the most powerful people in the world – finger on an independent nuclear button, heading the 8th largest economy in the world, and punching even above that weight in the EU.

Read the background on openDemocracy

The Options

Nicolas Sarkozy
Front runner of the center right, Sarkozy has been outspoken by his populism and the pride with which he wears the bade of the outsider from France’s ruling elite.

Thanks to phil_h for the image

More information about the possible answers