Belgium will break up, with the Flemish nationalists achieving their goal of independence.

I think Roger’s point that the nation states are looking fragile in the face of EU and globalisation is a good one. But surely they will wither, not actually dissolve. Safe to bet against this one, i think.

I agree. Real possibility of cashing in here – get in quick. Also see the disclaimer.

I also agree. Betting against this is a safe bet.

I also agree that betting against this is a safe bet. Last month, RTBF (state television) played a hoax and broke into regular programming announcing that Flemish nationalists had achieved their goal of independence. Although meant to incite public debate about the future of Belgium, the hoax was greeted with disdain and condemnation from everyone (including neighboring Luxembourg) but the Flemish nationalists. Since there is no other party actively vying for this to happen, I can’t see it doing so. Also, I agree with deepjane that nation states may become more fragile but not actually dissolve in the face of the EU and globalisation.

I think that this market shows how much we can’t rely on markets of this kind to predict certain outcomes. I find it hard to believe that there is 17% chance of this case coming true, and yet in the time since I bet against it, people have bet in favor of it happening. Either this is a case of people buying because they can’t resist a bargain, or they are using multiple accounts to manipulate the price and enhance their profits.

i’m not sure i agreee with your point, Samuel.

people have a limited number of bets to place because of limited budgets. if you think this is much too high, you could pile into it and wait to be proved right. but that would tie up you $s for a long time.

i suggest you leave this market, spend elsewhere that is likely to see movement sooner, and remember to return here before the end of the year.

does this make the 17% number spurious?

no – if it were much higher, at 50% let’s say, you could express your degree of disbelief despite the opportunity cost. But here, even if you think 17% is high, you are expressing a smaler degree of disbelief.

The question you raise is about what a probability means – degree of belief versus frequentist …