This market was inspired by Todd Gitlin’s prediction

Here is Todd’s bleak outlook for the year:

"Predictions of (a) slaughter in Iraq, (b) stand-off in Israel-Palestine, © stagnation or worse in Afghanistan, (d) continued balmy weather and ice-melting in the north Atlantic are banal, but good wagers. Anyone betting that Bush will wise up anywhere in the world is a hardier fool than I.

All this said, I can anticipate that something (a) large, (b) unanticipated, and © horrible will take place in 2007 – more than one such event, in fact. This is not even to speak of ongoing conditions – genocide in Darfur, Aids misery, the vast draining of resources into military use. "

The question is: who will judge this one? Is it a prediction or a temperament? Do you like to see a bleak future and occasionally find a nice surprise in the unfolding of history, or are you a “positive thinker” who needs to be braced for the disappointment of events.

I will close the market in democratic fashion: a poll will be run on openDemcracy during December 2007, open to all members, and phrased as:

In 2007, do you consider that more than one event that was (a) large, (b) unanticipated, and © horrible took place, excluding Darfur, Aids and militarism.

Thanks to Jesper Sachmanns for the photo