2008-06-09T07:10:27-07:00 Sports is a very important source of international prestige. It can be argued that its no accident that the United States' geopolitical hegemony has been accompanied by a "'sports hegemony'":http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-time_Olympic_Games_medal_count. In this light it is interesting to see if the alleged geopolitical decline of the United States will be accompanied by a decline of its dominance in the medal count of the Summer Olympics. Especially because they will be held in China, which some see as the future superpower. The medal count does not refer to the total amount of medals. The country with the most gold medals wins, silver and bronze are only important when the amount of golds for two countries is equal. In 2004, China trailed the US by "only 4":http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Summer_Olympics_medal_count, while Russia was the only serious outsider, trailing by 9 gold medals. Picture: Wikipedia 2008-08-24T07:16:00-07:00 true 12481 What country will win the medal count in the upcoming Summer Olympics in Beijing? 2008-08-27T23:00:51-07:00 85404 2008-06-16T06:01:40-07:00 10000 42318 China 10000 5847 2008-08-27T23:00:50-07:00 4000 CHI 2008-06-16T06:01:20-07:00 0 42317 The United States 0 3121 2008-08-27T23:00:51-07:00 4000 USA 2008-06-16T06:01:59-07:00 0 42319 Russia 0 515 2008-08-27T23:00:51-07:00 1000 RUS 2008-06-16T06:02:09-07:00 0 42320 Other 0 515 2008-08-27T23:00:51-07:00 1000 OTH 2008-05-24T02:35:57-07:00 Sports, and football in particular, is an important source of international prestige and national sentiment. With political tensions rising in Europe, the stakes are higher than ever for Euro 2008. Will traditional superpowers like France, Italy or Germany win, an outsider like Greece in 2004, or maybe Russia, which is rapidly increasing its international standing after Zenit St. Petersburgs UEFA Cup win. 2008-06-29T12:45:00-07:00 true 12154 Who will win Euro 2008? 2008-06-30T12:36:29-07:00 85404 2008-05-24T02:43:31-07:00 10000 40408 Spain 10000 2262 2008-06-30T12:36:28-07:00 625 Spa 2008-05-24T02:39:42-07:00 0 40395 Portugal 0 935 2008-06-30T12:36:29-07:00 625 Por 2008-05-24T02:40:25-07:00 0 40397 Turkey 0 2200 2008-06-30T12:36:28-07:00 625 Tur 2008-05-24T02:41:12-07:00 0 40400 Germany 0 3321 2008-06-30T12:36:28-07:00 625 Ger 2008-05-24T02:41:47-07:00 0 40402 France 0 629 2008-06-30T12:36:29-07:00 625 Fra 2008-05-24T02:42:01-07:00 0 40403 Italy 0 1017 2008-06-30T12:36:29-07:00 625 Ita 2008-05-24T02:42:19-07:00 0 40404 The Netherlands 0 1549 2008-06-30T12:36:29-07:00 625 Net 2008-05-24T02:43:17-07:00 0 40407 Russia 0 2217 2008-06-30T12:36:28-07:00 625 Rus 2008-02-27T05:20:30-08:00 Will Russia agree to further economic sanctions against Iran in the UN Security Council in 2008? 2008-12-31T23:59:00-08:00 false 9732 Will Russia agree to further economic sanactions on Iran? 2008-11-20T09:24:39-08:00 8180 2008-02-27T05:20:30-08:00 4256 33223 Yes 4256 4256 5000 YES 2008-02-27T05:18:23-08:00 2008-12-31T23:59:00-08:00 false 9731 Will Ramzan Kadyrov be President of Chechnya at the end of the year? 2008-12-30T03:24:50-08:00 8180 2008-02-27T05:18:23-08:00 6709 33222 Yes 6709 6709 5000 YES 2008-02-27T05:14:34-08:00 Mikhail Khodorkovsky was one of the youngest Russian oligarchs during the Yeltsin years. Later he was convicted of fraud and tax evasion and lost must of his wealth in the collapse of the petroleum company YUKOS. Khodorkovsky was found guilty of fraud in 2005 and sentenced to 10 years in prison in a process considered to be largely politically motivated. Khodorkovsky is currently on a hunger strike in support of his associate Vasily Aleksanyan and facing additional charges of embezzlement and money laundering. For the purposes of this market Khodorkovsky will be considered to not be in jail if he has been released, exiled or has died. 2008-12-31T23:59:00-08:00 false 9730 Will Mikhail Khodorkovsky be in jail at the end of the year? 2008-12-12T04:28:01-08:00 8180 2008-02-27T05:14:34-08:00 6521 33221 Yes 6521 6521 5000 YES 2008-02-27T05:12:03-08:00 Thanks to <a href="http://flickr.com/photos/johncoghill/">John Coghill</a> for the picture. Boris Berezovsky, a former oligarch and politician during the presidency of Boris Yeltsin, entered self-imposed exile in the UK after Vladimir Putin came to power. Having been granted political asylum in the UK he went on to form the “London Circle” of Russian Exiles and was involved in supporting the “Orange Revolution” movement in the Ukraine. Berezovsky, apparently the target of several assassination plots, faces allegations of criminal activities in Brazil and the Netherlands. Will the UK agree to extradite Berezovsky to Russia in 2008? 2008-12-01T23:59:00-08:00 false 9729 Will Britain extradite Boris Berezovsky? 2008-11-19T07:28:08-08:00 8180 2008-02-27T05:12:03-08:00 3101 33220 Yes 3101 3101 5000 YES 2008-02-27T05:09:19-08:00 Thanks to <a href="http://flickr.com/photos/7570038@N07/">markoc140000</a> for the picture. Andrei Lugovoi, former KGB agent and businessman, has been implicated in the poisoning of Alexandler Litvinenko in November 2006. Britain has charged Lugovoi with Litvinenko's murder and has announced its intent to seek his extradition from Russia. Logovi is now a deputy for the LDPR (Liberal Democratic Party of Russia) in the State Duma of the Russian Federation. Will Britain be succesful in it's attempts to extradite Lugovi from Russia in 2008? 2008-12-31T23:59:00-08:00 false 9728 Will Russia extradite Andrei Lugovoi? 2008-12-27T08:43:10-08:00 8180 2008-02-27T05:09:19-08:00 3187 33219 Yes 3187 3187 5000 YES 2008-02-27T05:02:26-08:00 Thanks to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:British_Council_-_London_1.jpg">Wikipedia</a> for the picture. The British Council is an educational and cultural body supported by the UK government and charged with promoting the English language and British ideas. The Council has experienced problems operating in Russia in recent years with the Russian government ordering the closure of the offices outside Moscow on tax and other grounds. The British government believes the attempts to close the British Council to be related to the dispute over the poising of Alexander Litvinenko. The question is will the situation escalate further and result in the closure of all Council offices in Russia? Read <a href="http://www.opendemocracy.net/blog/hugh_barnes/joining_the_dots">Hugh Barnes'</a> on the situation. 2008-12-31T23:59:00-08:00 false 9727 Will the British Council will be kicked out of Russia? 2008-11-07T15:01:53-08:00 8180 2008-02-27T05:02:26-08:00 4453 33218 Yes 4453 4453 5000 YES 2008-02-27T04:48:11-08:00 2008-12-31T23:59:00-08:00 false 9726 What will the inflation rate be in Russia at the end of the year? 2008-06-10T03:12:20-07:00 8180 2008-02-27T04:58:29-08:00 Thanks to <a href="http://flickr.com/photos/melita/29463746/">Melita</a> for the picture. For the purposes of this market we will use the figures released by Goskomstat. 800 33217 8 800 800 800 xx% 2008-02-27T04:36:13-08:00 Will Medvedev represent Russia at the G8, the UN General Assembly General Debate and APEC? Thanks to <a href="http://flickr.com/photos/mukluk/">Dano</a> for the picture. 2008-12-31T23:59:00-08:00 false 9725 Will Medvedev represent Russia at international meetings? 2008-09-27T08:21:14-07:00 8180 2008-02-27T04:36:13-08:00 9073 33216 Yes 9073 9073 5000 YES 2008-02-27T04:33:11-08:00 2008-03-01T21:00:00-08:00 false 9724 Will Andrey Bogdanov get more than 5% of the vote in the Russian Presidential elections? 2008-04-28T09:38:53-07:00 8180 2008-02-27T04:33:11-08:00 0 33215 Yes 0 5000 2008-03-04T02:06:10-08:00 5000 YES 2008-02-27T04:29:13-08:00 Thanks to <a href="http://flickr.com/photos/24674184@N00/">onewmphoto</a> for the picture. 2008-12-31T23:59:00-08:00 false 9723 Will Medvedev pull Russian troops out of Chechnya? 2008-11-06T09:49:26-08:00 8180 2008-02-27T04:29:13-08:00 3918 33214 Yes 3918 3918 5000 YES 2008-02-27T04:15:10-08:00 _Dmitry Medvedev_ Thanks to the <a href="http://flickr.com/photos/worldeconomicforum/">WEF</a> for the picture. Will Medvedev receive a greater share of the vote than Putin did in 2004? Putin received 71.31% of the vote. For the purposes of this market we will use the Central Election Commission results. 2008-03-01T21:00:00-08:00 false 9722 Will Medvedev-2008 beat Putin-2004? 2008-04-28T09:38:53-07:00 8180 2008-02-27T04:15:10-08:00 0 33213 Yes 0 5000 2008-03-04T02:05:39-08:00 5000 YES 2007-02-15T12:47:39-08:00 Recently the Foreign Ministers of China, India and Russia met to discuss the possibilities of some kind of partnership that would promote a more democractic and multi-polar global community. Will these three nations reach an agreement of any significant meaning along the lines of energy, economics, and or strategic partnership? 2007-12-31T12:55:00-08:00 false 3409 China, India and Russia will reach a strategic and/or economic pact? 2008-04-28T09:38:30-07:00 8395 2007-02-15T12:54:32-08:00 Recently FMs from China, India and Russia held a meeting to discuss the creation of "a more democractic and multi-polar" global community. They do not see this as supercedeing the UN, but the aggreement could eventually involve partnerships in energy, economics, and/or strategic interests. Choosing this option would mean they reach no functional agreement. 10000 15371 No Functional Agreement Reached 10000 3058 2008-01-29T06:20:29-08:00 2500 None 2007-02-15T12:50:19-08:00 Recently FMs from China, India and Russia held a meeting to discuss the creation of "a more democractic and multi-polar" global community. They do not see this as supercedeing the UN, but the aggreement could eventually involve partnerships in energy, economics, and/or strategic interests. Choosing this option would mean they reach an energy agreement only. 0 15368 Energy Partnership Only 0 2498 2008-01-29T06:20:55-08:00 2500 Enrgy 2007-02-15T12:52:48-08:00 Recently FMs from China, India and Russia held a meeting to discuss the creation of "a more democractic and multi-polar" global community. They do not see this as supercedeing the UN, but the aggreement could eventually involve partnerships in energy, economics, and/or strategic interests. Choosing this option would mean they reach an economic agreement. 0 15369 Economic Partnership Only 0 2651 2008-01-29T06:20:47-08:00 2500 Econ 2007-02-15T12:53:48-08:00 Recently FMs from China, India and Russia held a meeting to discuss the creation of "a more democractic and multi-polar" global community. They do not see this as supercedeing the UN, but the aggreement could eventually involve partnerships in energy, economics, and/or strategic interests. Choosing this option would mean they reach an Strategic agreement only. 0 15370 Strategic Partnership Only 0 1218 2008-01-29T06:21:07-08:00 1000 Strat 2007-02-15T12:55:11-08:00 Recently FMs from China, India and Russia held a meeting to discuss the creation of "a more democractic and multi-polar" global community. They do not see this as supercedeing the UN, but the aggreement could eventually involve partnerships in energy, economics, and/or strategic interests. Choosing this option means that some sort of multi-faceted agreement is reached. 0 15372 Multifaceted Partnership 0 2115 2008-01-29T06:21:01-08:00 1500 Multi 2006-12-31T05:50:31-08:00 2007-12-31T05:54:00-08:00 true 2922 EU countries will face shortages in gas supplies in 2007 2008-04-28T09:38:29-07:00 8214 2006-12-31T05:53:56-08:00 When will Gazprom feel the need to show that it does not just talk tough with regard to EU gas suplies? "Dieter Helm has followed the question on openDemocracy":http://www.opendemocracy.net/globalization-institutions_government/energy_policy_4186.jsp The Russian gas giant Gazprom gave warning right at the end of 2006 that supplies to Western Europe would be interrupted unless a dispute with neighbouring Belarus was settled. A supply disruption strategically motivated by Russia is what we are predicting here. It is hard to find an objective measure of this, so I will rely on "Dieter Helm":http://www.opendemocracy.net/author/Dieter_Helm.jsp to be the arbiter of this market. 0 14276 Gas supplies 0 4139 2008-01-31T03:17:51-08:00 3000 Gas