| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| UN in Somalia | $5.40/ $0.00 | (closed) |
Not a chance, never will the UN take the Somalia risk. Unmanageable! First the UN’s rule of engagement prevents its peacekeeper from firing a bullet. The nomadic culture of Somalia is to hostile, and vengefull. AU peace keepers with UN funding, although will prove ineffective, is a possible option.
I think that a force of 5000 UN peacekeepers is extremely unlikely and that eritus’ comment is right on the money.
When it comes to Somalia, tracking ‘suicide bomber’ market in Mogodushu would be interesting. Are the Islamists extremist comparable to Taliban or moderates? An answer could be found in how they wage the war against the interim Somali government and Ethiopia.
A viable force at least 5000 strong will deploy to key regions and cities.
Harun Hassan has covered the background on Somalia for openDemocracy